自我介绍范文网

• 

  脑力

  记忆

  速读

  智商

• 

  方法

  考试

  英语

  电脑

• 

  励志

  口才

  职场

  创业

• 

  生活

  礼仪

  阅读

  简历

• 

  范文

  论文

  作文

  名言

  语录

  下载

Overseas economy:U.S. government shutdown starts, U.S. bond yields rise sharply.Last Saturday afternoon, the U.S. Senate rejected the one-month temporary spending bill and the U.S. government entered the shutdown process. According to a Reuters report last Thursday, the Trump administration is finalizing its infrastructure construction plan and may disclose part of the plan during the State of the Union address to be deliveredon January 30. Last week, initial jobless claims in the US fell to 220,000, its lowest level in 45 years. The Fed's Beige Book shows economic activity achieved “modest to moderate growth” in early 2018. That, coupled with a cut of purchase of long term Treasury bonds by the Bank of Japan in its routine purchase of bonds, caused the yield on 10Y U.S. T-bonds to rise to 2.66% last Friday, a record high in several years.

    China economy concluded 2017 with stability.The Chinese economy concluded 2017 with stability, recording 6.8%YoY GDP growth in 4Q2017, flat from the previous quarter. From the spending perspective, consumption is still the mainstay, but the contribution of investment and exports increased; from the production perspective, the industrial output decline dragged down the economy, while the service sector provided support. In December 2017, industrial added value’s YoY growth rose slightly to 6.2% YoY, but stillat a low level. The output growth rates of major industrial products are mixed, with that ofcoal, electricity, steel products and nonferrous metals rebounding, and that of ethylene, chemical fiber, cement and vehicles sliding. In 4Q2017, investment growth reboundedslightly to 6.4%, mainly due to a sharp increase of investment growth in December. Improvement in corporate profits led to a rebound in manufacturing investment, while re-emergence of fiscal pressure caused investment in infrastructure to drop. Investment in real estate dropped further and will remain under pressure in the future. In December 2017, retail sales growth dropped to 9.4%, with retail sales growth of companies above designated size falling to 6.7%. Consumer staples spending represented by food and clothing retail sales improved slightly. Consumer discretionary spending mostly dropped. Retail sales of petroleum and petroleum products rebounded. Retail sales of real estate-related home appliances, furniture and building materials rebounded from low levels. However, as a result of previous demand overdraft, vehicle sales, which have the highest proportion, are still sliding and forming a major drag.

    Inflation pressure is not heavy.In December 2017, CPI rose 0.3% MoM, with YoY growth adding slightly to 1.8%. For the entire 2017, the YoY growth is only 1.6%. Due to falling temperature, food prices rose MoM by 1.1% in December, with YoY drop narrowing to 0.4%. Meanwhile, energy prices rose for a fifth successive month, driving a 0.1% MoM gain in non-food prices, which fell slightly by 2.4% on a yearly basis. As of present, food prices monitored by the Ministry of Commerce rose by 2.7% MoM in January 2018. We expect CPI food prices’ MoM gain to rise to 1.5% in January 2018, and the YoY gain of CPI to drop slightly to 1.4%. In December 2017, PPI increased 0.8% MoM, with YoY growth falling further to 4.9%. The gain was contributed mainly by middle-stream and up-stream sectors. Production materials prices’ YoY gain fell back to 6.4%, a level still considered high. Since January 2018, the production materials prices monitored by the Ministry of Commerce have been falling for three consecutive weeks. As of present, the futures prices of ports production materialsdropped 0.3% MoM. We expect PPI to drop 0.2% MoM in January 2018, with its YoY gain falling to 3.9% during the month. In 2017, thePPI rose far more than the CPI, but the price increase of production materials trended lower while food prices rebounded and facilitated anupward trend of CPI in December. We expect inflation trends to reverse in 2018 years, with CPI gain rising moderately to 2.1% and PPI gain falling below 2%.